Ah, the Oscars. A celebration of movie greatness, brilliance of craft, and artistic
excellence. Also pretty much the only reason Melissa Rivers has a job, and a chance for the Hollywood Dogs to sniff
each others collective butts.
I know I sound a little bitter. This is because, for the 31st straight year, I HAVEN'T been nominated for the little
gold guy. They cite the fact that I haven't actually WORKED in any of the nominated categories...but I know the
truth...they're AFRAID of me.
I mean, they could EASILY create the "Best Internet Movie Critic" award, but they haven't. And even if they
do, they'll give it to Harry Knowles. It's all politics.
But that doesn't mean that I don't love Oscar. For years, I was considered to be an expert Oscar prognosticator. Then,
of course, last year I went ONE for f*****g EIGHT.
Thank you VERY much, Adrien Brody.
But this year is different. I hope y'all haven't finalized your Oscar Pool picks yet, because I've got the low-down for
you. Look no further than me, babies...I'll give you what you need.
And remember, I haven't seen many of these movies. Because, you know, for Day Job, it's MUCH more important to see crap
like "Eurotrip" than good movies like "Mystic River". These picks aren't based on what I've SEEN,
they're based on my knowledge of the Hollywood system.
We'll take it category by category.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
And the nominees are:
Shohreh Aghdashloo - HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
Patricia Clarkson - PIECES OF APRIL
Marcia Gay Harden - MYSTIC RIVER
Holly Hunter - THIRTEEN
Renée Zellweger - COLD MOUNTAIN
Okay, first things first: Marcia Gay Harden and Holly Hunter have won before...so they're out. Patricia Clarkson was
fantastic in "Pieces Of April", but I'm probably the only person in North America who saw it...so she's out.
This makes it a 2-person race between Aghdashloo and Zellweger. Now, I haven't actually SEEN "Cold Mountain"
yet. And I HAVE seen "House Of Sand And Fog", and Aghdashloo was wonderful. But she won't win.
Why?
3 reasons:
1) It's a Dreamworks picture, and there's a huge backlash against the studio right now for their over-aggressive
campaign.
2) Aghdashloo is a foreigner. Oscar likes to buy American. And I'm not convinced that many of the actual voters know
the difference between an Iranian actress and an Iraqi actress.
3) This is the third year in a row Zellweger has been nominated. She should have won 1 years ago for "Bridget
Jones's Diary" for looking so damn hot. She should have won last year for "Chicago" for looking so damn
hot.
As beautiful as Aghdashloo is, she ain't "hot".
It'll be Zellweger by a nose. A cute, scrunched-up nose.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
And the nominees are:
Alec Baldwin - THE COOLER
Benicio Del Toro - 21 GRAMS
Djimon Hounsou - IN AMERICA
Tim Robbins - MYSTIC RIVER
Ken Watanabe - THE LAST SAMURAI
Del Toro has won already...so scratch him. Besides, only 21 people saw "21 Grams". Hounsou is too damn good
looking to win a Supporting award, which is normally given to unattractive, character actors. Watanabe is too Japanese,
and one of the big movies of the year pokes fun at the Japanese. So it's either Baldwin or Robbins. They're both very
political, and very Left. But, of the 2, Robbins is the one who WASN'T in "The Cat In The Hat", so he'll take
it. It's too bad, because Baldwin was fantastic in "The Cooler", so maybe next time he'll pick his OTHER
scripts better.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
And the nominees are:
AMERICAN SPLENDOR
CITY OF GOD
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MYSTIC RIVER
SEABISCUIT
Well, "Lord Of The Rings" will be very well represented in the other categories, so it will be ignored here.
"Seabiscuit" is kind of a joke nomination...the movie's about a friggin' HORSE. "City Of God" is a
foreign film, so it doesn't stand a chance. So it's either "American Splendor" or "Mystic River".
"Splendor" would win if there was a God, but brilliance and inventiveness is rarely rewarded, so I'm saying
it will be "Mystic River"...although I HOPE I'm wrong and "Splendor" takes it.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
And the nominees are:
THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS
DIRTY PRETTY THINGS
FINDING NEMO
IN AMERICA
LOST IN TRANSLATION
Well, "Barbarian" and "Dirty" are foreign, so they're toast ("Barbarian is in FRENCH, to add
insult to injury...and besides, it's been described as a "Big Chill" for older people.) "Nemo" is
one of the most brilliantly funny screenplays in history...so it's gone too, especially since it's an animated movie.
"In America" is getting buzz because it's so autobiographical, and Jim Sheridan's 2 daughters helped. But, I
think Sofia Coppola will take this one in lieu of a "Director" award. "Lost In Translation" is also
brilliantly written, almost as brilliant as "Nemo". But this will be about politics. "Translation"
will take it.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
And the nominees are:
BROTHER BEAR
FINDING NEMO
THE TRIPLETS OF BELLEVILLE
"Belleville" is very popular with the art-house crowd. But after "Spirited Away" won this last
year, a Hollywood film is due. Besides, if you meet someone who didn't love "Nemo", then they have no soul.
It's "Nemo" all the way. Mine, mine, mine, mine...
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
And the nominees are:
Keisha Castle-Hughes - WHALE RIDER
Diane Keaton - SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE
Samantha Morton - IN AMERICA
Charlize Theron - MONSTER
Naomi Watts - 21 GRAMS
"In America" and "21 Grams" are very, VERY independent films, so they won't get an award this
prestigious. Keaton has been here and done this, and in another year, she'd be a lock. But who are we kidding...this is
Theron's year. She got ugly for the role, and Oscar LOVES that. The only potential upset is Castle-Hughes, for 2
reasons:
1) the movie itself is kind of a cause celebre in the industry, and
2) we're overdue for a very young, inexperienced actress to take a major prize. Again, she'd have a good shot in
another year, but Theron is a lock. As my friend Milo said, if you find someone willing to bet against Theron, TAKE THE
BET!
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
And the nominees are:
Johnny Depp - PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL
Ben Kingsley - HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
Jude Law - COLD MOUNTAIN
Bill Murray - LOST IN TRANSLATION
Sean Penn - MYSTIC RIVER
Kingsley was FAN-F*****G-TASTIC, and had one scene in the movie that turned me to jelly, emotionally. I'm talking about
big-time sobbing here, and if you're one of the seven people who saw the movie, you know which scene I'm talking about.
But he won't get it. Jude Law has publicly said that Penn should get it, so he's out. Penn has also publicly that HE
doesn't want it, so he's out...surprisingly. So it's Murray or Depp. And Depp has the recent SAG award behind him, and
a far better resume than Murray. I mean, what would YOU rather watch..."Ed Wood" or "Osmosis
Jones"? I still think it's going to be Murray though...his performance wasn't as crowd-pleasing or funny as
Depp's, but the power behind it can't be ignored. I say Murray, but if I'm going to be wrong, it will be in this
category.
DIRECTING
And the nominees are:
CITY OF GOD
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
LOST IN TRANSLATION
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
MYSTIC RIVER
"City" is kind of a pity nomination, and it's not up for Best Picture, so it won't win in a million years.
"Translation" was directed by a woman, so it's out too (don't get mad...it's not my rule). "Master and
Commander" is a solid piece of work, but so is everything else Peter Weir directs. Eastwood has won this already,
so it won't be "Mystic River"...
Oh, who am I kidding? This is Peter Jackson's for "LOTR" all the way. Yes, he should have won it for the
other 2 in the series as well. But he didn't, and this award is for the Trilogy rather than the Movie. Either way, well
deserved.
BEST PICTURE
And the nominees are:
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
LOST IN TRANSLATION
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
MYSTIC RIVER
SEABISCUIT
See above. It's LOTR:ROTK. No ifs, ands, or buts about it, and other than Best Director, it's the easiest call of the
show.
So, now you know. And if I'm as wrong as I was last year, I'll have plenty of crow to eat. But I feel pretty
confident.
So watch, have fun, and hopefully I can say "I told you so"
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